By removing each card in turn from an eight-deck shoe, its effect on the house edge can be determined. The overall house edge for the game dealt from eight decks is 7.611%. The methodology used in this study is familiar. Determining which of these low cards result in a final total of 7 most often is the key. The cards 1-7 are each cards that can move the dealer’s final total to 7 if he draws. An excess of smaller cards is also helpful.

As these cards are removed from the shoe, the edge moves quickly towards the counter’s favor. The cards that keep the dealer from drawing that third card most often are the 8 and the 9. The key is that in order for the player to win the Dragon bet, the dealer has to draw a third card. The Dragon Side Bet is vulnerable to a card counting methodology, but the answer is surprising. The conclusions were that if there was any vulnerability at all, it would come when 7’s and 10’s were in excess in the remainder of the shoe. Later, as I read several Internet discussion boards, it became clear that others thought as I did. In this case, the dealer would be more likely to draw 10-10 and hit to a 10-10-7 = 7. Intuitively, it seemed as though the wager was more probable to hit if there was an excess of 7 and 10 valued cards in the deck. I first considered if the Dragon Side Bet was susceptible to a card counting methodology several months back.

3: Probability of a Win at Various Mid-game Stages.

2: Baccarat card counting - Effects of removing a card.

1: Baccarat - The Number of Combinations of Each Possible Hand.

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